one dataset · paper, tables, graph, wiki
simgrammar the grammar of simulation

watch

2 shorts with this record on screen
Short 9: The why button, opening frameplay · 0:39
rendered · short-09.mp4 · drawn from the dataset

short 9 0:39

The why button

transcript

The AI feature our dataset ranks highest for simulation games is a button that asks why.

We scored 42 bets on impact, feasibility, and novelty, and this one came first. Right-click the hospital that closed three months ago, ask why, and get a few sentences, each linked to an event in the game's own log. The model can only say what it can point to. If it can't ground an answer, it says so.

The bet has a deadline. If no game with at least ten thousand Steam reviews ships it by December 31, 2027, answering free-text questions from the player's own save, it loses.

also on the pages for

Short 11: Due on the same day, opening frameplay · 0:35
rendered · short-11.mp4 · drawn from the dataset

short 11 0:35

Due on the same day

transcript

9 predictions about AI in simulation games come due on the same day, December 31, 2027.

Every bet in our dataset carries one, written so a stranger could check it. Take the first: a widely played game lets you ask why something happened in your own save. It only counts if it shipped after October 24, 2026, in a game with ten thousand Steam reviews, answering from your save and not from a manual.

And the person who checks can't be the one who made the bet, or the same AI model that wrote it.

also on the pages for

thesis

Event chains, villager requests, and dilemma cards are capped by writing budgets: players exhaust the deck and recognize repeats. Language models can generate variants, but unconstrained text breaks game logic. Templates with typed slots, constrained decoding into the event schema, and automated checks against preconditions let a small team ship a deck that keeps producing valid, state-aware events.

design sketch

Designers write 200 event templates with preconditions, effects, and tone notes. At build time or runtime, a generator instantiates variants that reference specific characters, places, and history from the save, emits schema-valid events, and passes them through a validator that rejects anything whose effects violate invariants. Generated events are tagged so players can filter them.

validation experiment

Take 50 authored events from an existing design, generate 500 variants, have blind raters compare authored and generated events on quality, and run a validator on every variant. Success: generated events rated within 0.5 points of authored ones with 99 percent passing validation.

key risks

  • Generated text quality below authored text lowers perceived quality.
  • Disclosure and player backlash against AI-generated writing.
  • Validation catches logic errors but not tone errors.

falsifiable prediction

by 2027-12-31

A grand strategy, life sim, or narrative management game will ship runtime-generated events constrained by an event schema.

Feature first shipped after 2026-10-24 in a title with at least 1,000 Steam user reviews; the Steam AI disclosure or developer documentation states that events are generated during play and must conform to a fixed structure of triggers, options, and effects.

open

appears in

the paper, 2 sections · 2 chapters · 1 episode · 2 shorts
paper

9. Opportunities

linked in this section of the paper

paper
paper

11. Predictions and research agenda

linked in this section of the paper

paper
ch 10

Chapter 10. Bets

linked from the text

book
ch 12

Chapter 12. Keeping score

linked from the text

book
ep 11

Keeping score

on screen at 0:00 cold open, 6:28 close

episode
short 9

The why button

0:39 · on screen in the short

short
short 11

Due on the same day

0:35 · on screen in the short

short

relations

13 stored edges

provenance

runs in log/runs
2026-10-24
created2026-10-24-synthesissynthesis
2026-10-24
reviewed2026-10-24-review-fixesmaintenance