{
  "byline": "Yohei Nakajima, Pedro Lucca, and Shrey Kothari",
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  "first_prediction_resolves_long": "31 December 2027",
  "first_prediction_resolves_spoken": "December 31, 2027",
  "first_run_date": "2026-10-23",
  "first_run_date_long": "23 October 2026",
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  "last_prediction_resolves": "2030-12-31",
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  "last_prediction_resolves_spoken": "December 31, 2030",
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  "median_prevalence_supporting_uses": 18.0,
  "most_mechanics_game": "Dwarf Fortress",
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  "n_family_mechanics_world_generation": 4,
  "n_family_zero_exposure_agents_behavior": 5,
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  "n_family_zero_exposure_world_generation": 1,
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  "n_games_agency_caretaking_interaction": 10,
  "n_games_agency_conversational": 11,
  "n_games_agency_design_then_test": 18,
  "n_games_agency_direct_avatar": 62,
  "n_games_agency_direct_unit": 50,
  "n_games_agency_indirect_incentive": 25,
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  "n_games_agency_supernatural_intervention": 6,
  "n_games_agency_zoning_placement": 72,
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  "n_games_naming_influence": 50,
  "n_games_narrative_authored": 15,
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  "n_games_role_caretaker": 17,
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  "n_games_role_observer_gardener": 7,
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  "n_games_time_model_real_time_pausable": 82,
  "n_games_time_model_real_world_clock": 7,
  "n_games_time_model_run_on_demand": 7,
  "n_games_time_model_turn_based": 20,
  "n_games_win_campaign": 25,
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  "n_games_win_open_sandbox": 90,
  "n_games_win_scenario_goals": 27,
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  "n_influence_links_cross_subgenre": 23,
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  "n_mechanic_proposals": 73,
  "n_mechanic_proposals_adopted": 28,
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  "n_mechanics_always_core": 7,
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  "n_mechanics_compute_4plus": 8,
  "n_mechanics_emergence_1": 14,
  "n_mechanics_emergence_4plus": 44,
  "n_mechanics_family_agents_behavior": 16,
  "n_mechanics_family_biology_health": 6,
  "n_mechanics_family_conflict_defense": 5,
  "n_mechanics_family_control_automation": 11,
  "n_mechanics_family_economy_finance": 19,
  "n_mechanics_family_environment_ecology": 10,
  "n_mechanics_family_governance_policy": 9,
  "n_mechanics_family_information_legibility": 10,
  "n_mechanics_family_logistics_networks": 14,
  "n_mechanics_family_multiplayer_persistence": 7,
  "n_mechanics_family_narrative_generation": 6,
  "n_mechanics_family_operation_procedure": 4,
  "n_mechanics_family_physics_materials": 12,
  "n_mechanics_family_population_lineage": 9,
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  "n_mechanics_family_resources_production": 14,
  "n_mechanics_family_risk_failure": 9,
  "n_mechanics_family_social_relations": 8,
  "n_mechanics_family_space_construction": 12,
  "n_mechanics_family_time_pacing": 6,
  "n_mechanics_family_world_generation": 4,
  "n_mechanics_feedback_balancing": 49,
  "n_mechanics_feedback_both": 40,
  "n_mechanics_feedback_none": 67,
  "n_mechanics_feedback_reinforcing": 43,
  "n_mechanics_first_1960s": 6,
  "n_mechanics_first_1970s": 9,
  "n_mechanics_first_1980s": 39,
  "n_mechanics_first_1990s": 80,
  "n_mechanics_first_2000s": 32,
  "n_mechanics_first_2010s": 29,
  "n_mechanics_first_2020s": 4,
  "n_mechanics_legibility_2_or_less": 18,
  "n_mechanics_legibility_2_or_less_emergence_3plus": 16,
  "n_mechanics_math_cellular_automata": 11,
  "n_mechanics_math_classical_mechanics": 12,
  "n_mechanics_math_combinatorics": 18,
  "n_mechanics_math_computation_theory": 8,
  "n_mechanics_math_continuum_mechanics": 10,
  "n_mechanics_math_control_theory": 12,
  "n_mechanics_math_epidemiology": 2,
  "n_mechanics_math_game_theory": 20,
  "n_mechanics_math_genetics_evolution": 3,
  "n_mechanics_math_graph_search": 20,
  "n_mechanics_math_information_theory": 13,
  "n_mechanics_math_machine_learning": 5,
  "n_mechanics_math_markov_stochastic": 25,
  "n_mechanics_math_mechanism_design": 10,
  "n_mechanics_math_network_flow": 12,
  "n_mechanics_math_optimization": 43,
  "n_mechanics_math_population_dynamics": 10,
  "n_mechanics_math_probability_statistics": 30,
  "n_mechanics_math_procedural_noise": 4,
  "n_mechanics_math_queueing": 12,
  "n_mechanics_math_scheduling": 21,
  "n_mechanics_math_social_network": 14,
  "n_mechanics_math_system_dynamics": 59,
  "n_mechanics_math_utility_decision": 26,
  "n_mechanics_never_core": 33,
  "n_mechanics_seen_by_2000": 137,
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  "n_mechanics_since_2010": 33,
  "n_mechanics_single_game": 2,
  "n_mechanics_touched_by_shipped": 41,
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  "n_opportunity_applies_breaking": 17,
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  "n_opportunity_horizon_1_2y": 19,
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  "n_opportunity_now_due_2029": 2,
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  "n_opportunity_type_legibility_layer": 2,
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  "n_possible_pairs": 19701,
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  "n_predictions_console_alternative": 9,
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  "n_research_edges_environment_ecology": 7,
  "n_research_edges_environment_ecology_weather": 3,
  "n_research_techniques_tune_economic_core": 4,
  "n_run_days": 7,
  "n_run_operators": 3,
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  "n_runs_agent": 53,
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  "n_runs_taxonomy": 9,
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  "n_sourced_or_verified": 394,
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  "n_technique_breaks_determinism": 10,
  "n_technique_client_realtime": 22,
  "n_technique_client_realtime_breaks": 3,
  "n_technique_offline_only": 11,
  "n_technique_prototype": 11,
  "n_technique_prototype_horizon_now": 1,
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  "n_technique_prototype_world_model": 4,
  "n_technique_research": 22,
  "n_technique_risk_compute_cost": 29,
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  "n_technique_risk_content_safety": 7,
  "n_technique_risk_controllability": 34,
  "n_technique_risk_determinism": 11,
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  "n_technique_risk_ip_provenance": 9,
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  "n_technique_risk_latency": 13,
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  "n_technique_runtime": 35,
  "n_technique_runtime_breaks": 10,
  "n_technique_runtime_mitigable": 16,
  "n_technique_runtime_preserves": 9,
  "n_technique_server_only": 13,
  "n_technique_server_only_breaks": 7,
  "n_technique_server_realtime": 19,
  "n_technique_server_realtime_breaks": 10,
  "n_technique_shipped": 13,
  "n_technique_shipped_breaks": 3,
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  "p_cluster_subgenre_ari": 0.001,
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  "p_legibility_compute_cost": "<0.001",
  "p_legibility_emergence_potential": "<0.001",
  "p_mechanics_seen_by_2000": 0.14,
  "pair_coverage_pct": 28.0,
  "pct_games_by_2000": 21.0,
  "pct_games_with_rare_core": 83.0,
  "pct_interface_emergence_1": 69.0,
  "pct_mechanic_scores_independently_rated": 5.0,
  "pct_mechanics_first_seen_1980_1999": 60.0,
  "pct_mechanics_seen_by_2000": 69.0,
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  "pct_permadeath_or_crafting_open_runs": 73,
  "pct_uses_on_zero_exposure": 52.0,
  "pct_uses_since_2010_on_pre2001": 84.0,
  "pct_uses_touched_by_shipped": 23.0,
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  "rho_legibility_emergence_potential": -0.42,
  "rho_legibility_emergence_potential_excl_interface": -0.35,
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  "sim_rimworld_dwarf_fortress": 0.31,
  "sim_rimworld_the_sims": 0.2,
  "sim_simcity_1989_cities_skylines": 0.2,
  "top_compute_family": "Physics & materials",
  "top_effect": "Deepens",
  "top_exposed_family": "Narrative & generation",
  "top_family_ai_native": "social-relations",
  "top_family_business_economic_sim": "economy-finance",
  "top_family_city_builder": "space-construction",
  "top_family_colony_sim": "agents-behavior",
  "top_family_factory_automation": "resources-production",
  "top_family_job_sim": "economy-finance",
  "top_family_life_sim": "agents-behavior",
  "top_family_management_tycoon": "agents-behavior",
  "top_family_pct_ai_native": 26,
  "top_family_pct_business_economic_sim": 35,
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  "top_family_pct_life_sim": 32,
  "top_family_pct_management_tycoon": 19,
  "top_family_pct_programming_sim": 24,
  "top_family_pct_survival_sim": 21,
  "top_family_pct_vehicle_sim": 20,
  "top_family_programming_sim": "control-automation",
  "top_family_survival_sim": "resources-production",
  "top_family_vehicle_sim": "progression-goals",
  "top_introducer": "Dwarf Fortress",
  "top_introducer_count": 11,
  "top_legibility_family": "Time & pacing",
  "top_mean_exposed_family": "Narrative & generation",
  "top_opportunity": "Why-query over the simulation log",
  "top_technique_risk": "controllability",
  "top_time_model": "real-time-pausable",
  "whitespace_min_games": 14,
  "year_max": 2026,
  "year_min": 1968
}